(Credit: Imago)
(Credit: Imago)
Match

Portsmouth’s chances of beating Southampton revealed by supercomputer

Jack Dawson
Jack Dawson

Correspondent AUTHORITY Football journalist with experience at the Edinburgh Evening News and GRV Media; Masters graduate from the University of Derby. FOCUS Scottish Premiership coverage with specialist knowledge of Rangers, Celtic, Hearts, Aberdeen, and Motherwell. THE INSIGHT Jack utilises a network of club and industry contacts across the Scottish Premiership to deliver verified, high-speed reporting. He provides the tactical and transfer insight behind the headlines to ensure fans get the full story as it happens.

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Portsmouth are set to take on Southampton on Sunday in the first South Coast derby since 2019.

With Portsmouth's last win against the Southampton coming in 2010, there is a real hope that they will finally overcome their rivals on the weekend.

Portsmouth’s good start to the 2025/26 campaign currently sees John Mousinho’s side above Southampton by two points.

However, Pompey could see the Saints leapfrog them if a defeat is inflicted on Sunday. 

Portsmouth manager John Mousinho watches on through gritted teeth.
John Mousinho has overseen a good start to the 2025/26 campaign (Credit: Imago)

Supercomputer predicts Southampton victory vs Portsmouth 

Due to recent contrasting positions in the English pyramid, the South Coast derby has rarely been played in recent years.

However, this has not stopped Portsmouth and Southampton from having a fierce hatred of one another.

Therefore, a victory for whichever team on Sunday could have a massive impact on the club.

  • Portsmouth are currently one point off the playoffs in eighth
  • Pompey have won two of their first four Championship matches, drawing one
  • Mousinho's side did however crash out of the Carabao Cup to Reading

However, Opta on 8 September, does not believe that Portsmouth have a good chance of picking up all three points.

The supercomputer believes Southampton will win the game, with the hosts sitting at a 51.1 per cent chance of getting the victory.

In contrast, Portsmouth are 24.1 per cent, making the Saints overwhelming favourites.

The odds of a draw currently sit at 24.8 per cent.

Conor Chaplin wearing an Ipswich training top.
Conor Chaplin could make his second Portsmouth debut against Southampton (Credit: Imago)

Portsmouth need to get a result at St. Mary’s 

While a victory is the dream, the simple fact is that Portsmouth need to at least pick up a point at St. Mary’s.

The match is a chance to get revenge for the heavy defeat in 2019, and another loss would only bring back this haunting memory.

Therefore, Mousinho needs to at least ensure that Portsmouth pick up a draw with the hope that a victory can be struck in the reverse fixture.

Hopefully, the squad will make the fans proud on the weekend and prove the supercomputer’s prediction wrong. 

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Championship
South Coast derby
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