Portsmouth relegation chances updated by supercomputer after Luton Town loss
Portsmouth were left frustrated by the weekend defeat to Luton Town and the subsequent injury news which followed.
John Mousinho revealed Rob Atkinson and Hayden Matthews will each miss a significant period – even more so for the latter, who is not expected to play again this season.
Saturday’s (1 March) result at Kenilworth Road was hair-tearing, but as it stands Pompey remain in a healthy position for survival.
Three of the remaining four fixtures in March come at Fratton Park, where the Blues have accumulated the bulk of their points, albeit starting against league leaders Leeds United on Sunday (9 March).
Portsmouth relegation chances calculated by Opta
Following the defeat to Luton – who move off the bottom of the Championship table as a result – Portsmouth have seen their relegation chances updated by the Opta supercomputer.
As of Tuesday morning (4 March), Pompey remain with a 2.76 per cent chance of suffering an immediate drop back into League One – it’s a nominal probability and will likely make for satisfying reading for supporters.
Given Portsmouth have spent months of this season in and around the bottom three, the safety net created by three wins on the bounce prior to Luton has come in tremendously handy, especially with Leeds – who have been given a whopping 97.66 per cent chance of promotion – the next test.
The supercomputer predicts the final points total for Mousinho’s men to weigh in at around 53, which most seasons is a reasonable few points above the cut-off.
Luton themselves are still lumbered with a 76.18 per cent probability of a second successive relegation, which would plummet the Hatters from the Premier League to League One in just over 12 months.
Mousinho must go full strength for Leeds
Some supporters have gone on record to recommend Portsmouth rest key players against Leeds on Sunday, reasoning that future fixtures are far more winnable.
Granted, it doesn’t help that it’s only three days later when Plymouth Argyle visit Fratton Park in a second home game in a little over 72 hours – but to rest talismanic figures against Daniel Farke’s table-topping powerhouses is playing with fire.
| POS | Opta supercomputer – Portsmouth v Leeds | Predicted points | Promotion chance (%) | Relegation chance (%) |
| 1 | Leeds United | 99 | 97.66 | 0.00 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 53 | 0.00 | 2.76 |
Of course it’s easy to understand the logic, with Plymouth and Preston’s meetings with Pompey in hot pursuit, but the last time Mousinho rotated almost half his team came for the visit to West Brom (25 January) – the Blues were 4-0 down by half-time and were beaten 5-1 after bringing the big guns on in the second half to hold back the tide.
Mousinho is fixated on maintaining the encouraging home record until the end of the campaign, and that includes Sunday.
Leeds will provide an almighty test, but they are beatable – you only have to look at how close Portsmouth got at Elland Road in a thrilling opening-weekend tussle.