Portsmouth relegation chances revealed by latest Opta supercomputer prediction
Portsmouth know the task at hand in their final four games of a rollercoaster first season back in the Championship.
One more win should see Pompey have enough, with two games apiece at Fratton Park and away from home in which to do so.
In truth, Blues fans will be sincerely hoping their second-tier status is sealed for another 12 months when they face survival rivals Hull City at Fratton on the final day of the season (3 May).
Opta supercomputer reveals latest relegation probability
Portsmouth have built a very impressive home record this season, which has doubtless saved them from scrapping around inside the bottom three at this stage.
The Blues sit four points above the drop zone, having relied heavily on their home form with just two victories on the road all season.
To unexpectedly make that three on Good Friday against Norwich City (18 April) would be massively welcome, and would take plenty of pressure off the shoulders of the Pompey squad. In reality, a draw would suffice in Norfolk before taking on Watford in PO4 on Easter Monday (21 April).
Opta have predicted the latest probability for each club battling, on whether they will suffer the dreaded drop to League One – and via BBC Sport (17 April), Pompey have been given a 5.58 per cent chance of going down.
To interpret that statistic as a 94.42 per cent chance of staying up makes for much more pleasant reading, that’s for sure.
There are five sides below Pompey heading into the double dose of EFL action over the extended Easter weekend, after which the outlook on the league will look far clearer and some concerned clubs could have become mathematically safe and sound.
Portsmouth eye Fratton fixtures as opportunity for that golden win
Mousinho‘s Portsmouth should be fine with 49 points, which would be achieved via one more win from their final four – although with the desperate scrapping for points of all the teams around them, there could be more upsets in the league’s final weeks.
Plymouth Argyle proved exactly that when they recovered from a half-time deficit to potentially deflate Sheffield United’s entire promotion bid. Argyle now have a slim chance of surviving – defeat would have had them all but down. Luton Town are trying to avoid becoming the first club in eight years to suffer a Premier League to League One double drop.
| Portsmouth – final four | Date |
| Norwich (A) | 18 April |
| Watford (H) | 21 April |
| Sheffield Wed (A) | 26 April |
| Hull (H) | 3 May |
Derby County were Pompey’s last opponents, the two sides playing out a nervy 2-2 draw at Fratton Park (12 April). Fratton will realistically be where Pompey are eyeing up those opportunities to gain three points.
Stranger things have happened, though, than a smash-and-grab away win. Onto Norwich.